Thursday, May 28, 2009
In his thought provoking an intellectual book, Nickolaus Taleb writes about predictions. In a nutshell, he writes that the track record of experts isn't much better than that of a random cab driver. If I read the paragraph correctly, Taleb asserts that one could extrapolate the future simply by taking one indicator. So I'm going to use my crystal ball. Using data from the US Census Bureau, I randomly picked Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales. The site shows a -1.6 decrease in inventories. So I predict that demand for inventories is greater than supply and this will lead to an increase in employment. My guess is as good as a monkey's.