The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes payroll data from business establishments. The data is a broad based survey is a better employment metric than the household survey since establishment data comes from actual payrolls of an estimated 40 million workers.
This is my down and dirty take on graphical data. Usually, where manufacturing hours dip below 41.5, this shows that the economy is not producing at capacity. Thus, a sign of a recession. The nonfarm hours have declined for several months. To me this means that consumers have less money to spend. This shows a decreased in aggregated demand. A decline in the hours worked also means that the economy is not making the natural rate output.
In the data is another thought for me. Outside of manufacturing, most workers only work a four-and-a-quarter day week. As a teacher, I usually work a 60-hour week. One implication to me is that potential teachers have to be screened for their ability to work long, uncompensated hours during the nine-month school year.
My dad is always "poking the bear", saying it must be so easy being a teacher and getting the whole summer off. To which I remind him of my 10 hour days, sometimes more, and the constant continuing education I take on myself during the year, as well as formal college courses for credit in the summer to extend my endorsement and eventually get my Masters, paid for out of my own pocket.
ReplyDeleteA question on what you said: Manufacturing below 41.5 hours shows a recession? So we have been in a recession since 2000? Could it be, as manufacturing declines, we are producing more services, or something else?
I thought that the manufacturing indicator was interesting too. We are producing more services and we are outsoucing manufacturing jobs. What doesn't show up in the statistics is the Solow Residual--total factor productivity. The residual is a measure of intangibles of labor like entrepreneurship. I believe a revision of the metric is needed to measure the structural changes in manufacturing. I hope you're going to be at the NCEE Annual Conference in Washington. Best.
ReplyDeleteSadly, no, I won't be going, although it looks great. Ironically, I have no money to do so! However, I do hope some of our congress can attend, I think they need some help.
ReplyDeleteOh, and I finally got my hands on New Deal or Raw Deal at my library, can't wait to read it. Thanks for the recommendation.
ReplyDeleteI really loved "new deal or raw deal". Tell me if you think the current administration looks like FDR's.
ReplyDeleteTrue dat about the teacher work hours! I have to say though, I have not had a job of any sort that let me actually work a real 40 hour week since I became a "professional" I wonder how much the "Wal-Mart" factor plays into that smaller work week?
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